Tag Archives: forecasting

Predicting the President

Did they really get it wrong? Surely after Brexit the pundits wouldn’t be that stupid. This week, we look back at the forecasting from the last 6 months on who would be the 45th President. The hot Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University predicted Trump as President. His statistical model uses each candidates’ primary results (as… Read More »

Independent feedback

I’m always on the lookout for ways of getting better engagement, from planning sessions to retrospectives, project kick-offs to project wrap-ups, workshops to meetups. How can you get independent thoughts that aren’t influenced by that loud/experienced/dominating participant? One tool that I experienced recently (which was being used to get feedback at the end of a… Read More »

Estimation meets Cynefin

Question: Which provides a better estimate: Planning Poker or an ‘expert’? Many teams would answer that question by saying Planning Poker is always better than an expert’s estimates. We’ve been told it’s the case so many times, that few question it. Truth is, an expert estimate is sometimes more appropriate than an estimate created using Planning Poker. Sometimes… Read More »

Guesstimate

In my summary of Monte Carlo Simulators (May 2015), I said that they were good because they grant the use of ranges and allow you to see how changing the inputs affects the project; but the biggest problem was that they can take quite a bit of time to set up. Well, Guesstimate has changed this: you can now… Read More »