probability

Predicting the President

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Did they really get it wrong? Surely after Brexit the pundits wouldn’t be that stupid. This week, we look back at the forecasting from the last 6 months on who would be the 45th President. The hot Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University predicted Trump as President. His statistical model uses… Read More »Predicting the President

Monte Carlo simulators

“There are too many variables to take into account … it’s impossible to know what the chance of success is.”   When I started my latest venture I knew that there was a possibility that it would fail. I’d spent years working with estimates and trying to forecast timelines, but this had lots… Read More »Monte Carlo simulators