Predicting the President

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Did they really get it wrong? Surely after Brexit the pundits wouldn’t be that stupid. This week, we look back at the forecasting from the last 6 months on who would be the 45th President. The hot Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University predicted Trump as President. His statistical model uses… Read More »Predicting the President

Our summer experiment

If you’re a regular to, you’ll know that James and I have been talking about estimation and forecasting quite a bit. We’ve also run a few experiments on the topic. Two books in particular have raised interesting ideas. Firstly, Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds talked about how crowds can beat… Read More »Our summer experiment

The Signal and the Noise

How do you fancy reading 450 pages on earthquakes, the spreading of diseases, climate change and terrorism? Quite. I groaned too. But Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction is a page-turner. He manages to mix history with a variety of topics in a… Read More »The Signal and the Noise