Probabilistic forecasting is an alternative to an estimates based approach. Rather than asking your teams to break down a lot of work up front, and then estimate it, we can use past data generated by the team from the work they’ve already done to extrapolate a forecast of what may happen… Read More »Probabilistic Forecasting
To most of us, the problems with fixing cost, scope and time are obvious. How do we know we can deliver all of the scope, in the time we’ve been given, with the people we have to do it? The short answer, is that in most cases you can’t especially… Read More »Fixed Everything Projects
Following on from last week’s post by James, I thought I would continue the estimation discussion, but from a different angle. Douglas Hubbard (author of How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business) believes that we can calibrate our estimation skills so that we are less likely… Read More »Estimation Calibration
Do you still use physical cards in planning poker? Or maybe you use an app? Either way, the question has to be “why?” A past colleague of mine recently emailed me to say that he’d found such apps, and I asked why he didn’t use hands? “It’s quicker and a… Read More »Show me the hand
With all the excitement around estimates, it was time to build “What Mike Said”. Heading into a 2-day hack-a-thon, we were being encouraged to work on ideas that would bring benefit, without needing to relate to any of the Company’s top priority items. The beauty team were offering shiny new… Read More »What Mike Said
I’m torn. I’ve grown up (professionally) believing that estimates are the best way to guide, direct and drive a business. Not just in tech either; even my first job had targets and budgets that were based on estimates. Suddenly, this bedrock of planning has been shattered: most estimates that I’ve… Read More »No Estimates
Estimation is always a hot topic, but it appears to particularly popular at the moment. One unifying belief (from Planning Poker to #NoEstimates) seems to be that we are not very good at estimating. But is that really true? Sure, if you are precise with your estimate, then you are… Read More »How accurate are your estimates?
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