Cargo cults and logical fallacies

An example of a ‘cargo cult’ is found on the island of Tannu, east of Australia.

In WWII, the US military brought a wealth of equipment and supplies to the small island. Cargo (such as fridges, medicines, clothing, weapons) had never been seen by the islanders before and many of them welcomed the items as gifts in return for helping the army.

When the war ended, the army left and the cargo stopped arriving. Some of the islanders started imitating the day-to-day activities of the US military (such as dressing in army-style dress, performing mock drills), believing that this caused the cargo to arrive. If they repeated what the US army did, would the cargo deliveries resume? They apparently cleared large areas of jungle and built military-style runways for the cargo planes to land and models of the planes to sit on the landing strips. Their thinking was a form of logic: “When the US army was here, cargo arrived. Therefore, the army being here caused the cargo to arrive.” It is said that about 6,000 people (20% of the island’s inhabitants) believe in this or a similar cult. It’s unclear whether the leaders of these cults believe in it themselves, or whether they are just scamming the gullible.

Picture by Paul Downey (https://www.flickr.com/photos/psd/9588038559/)

At this year’s Agile on the Beach, J. B. Rainsberger reminded us of Grandma’s Ham. The story goes that a woman is preparing a ham for dinner and, before she puts it in the oven, cuts the ends of the ham. She is asked why she cut the ends of the ham and replies that, “I don’t really know, it’s what my mum used to do, and what her mum did too. So, I’ve always done it and it results in a tasty ham.” When she asks Granny why she cut the ends off the ham, she is told: “I had a small oven so I had to do that to fit the ham in the oven”.

Both of these stories illustrate the concept of logical fallacy:

A occurred, then B occurred.
Therefore, A caused B.

When B is undesirable, this pattern is often extended in reverse: Avoiding A will prevent B.

But you don’t just see this happening in remote islands or regarding family recipes; this is happening every day in millions of businesses. Whether they are deliberately scamming people or just believe in the logical fallacy, I bet you’ve heard people saying stuff like:

• “We’ve just always done it that way, and it works.”
• “When we did it that way, everyone agreed it worked much better.”
• “If we do it that way, we’ll get this result.”

Don’t just accept statements like these; question them.

Look at what is going on. Use data to establish the facts, not guesswork. Making changes without basing them on reality is madness that far outweighs the above stories.

Stop it!