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Euro 2016 experiment update

If you’re a regular, you’ll know that we ran an experiment on forecasting, using the Euro 2016 football tournament. We were testing two concepts:

  1. Does an aggregated crowd make a better prediction than any individual?
  2. Are predictions that are reviewed and updated regularly better than those which aren’t?

So how is everyone doing?

Standings at the end of the group stages, on Wednesday 22 June, were:

Leaderboard
Position Name Score
1 Pawel Kaminski 83.3
2 Gayane Gevorgyan 81.3
3 Nick Cavell 81.2
4 Jiten Vara 80.7
5 James Wyllie 80.0
10 CROWD 79.2
Best Superforecaster (Nick Cavell) 77.9

The crowd beat 88.31% of participants.