If you’re a regular, you’ll know that we ran an experiment on forecasting, using the Euro 2016 football tournament. We were testing two concepts:
- Does an aggregated crowd make a better prediction than any individual?
- Are predictions that are reviewed and updated regularly better than those which aren’t?
So how is everyone doing?
Standings at the end of the group stages, on Wednesday 22 June, were:
| Leaderboard | ||
| Position | Name | Score |
| 1 | Pawel Kaminski | 83.3 |
| 2 | Gayane Gevorgyan | 81.3 |
| 3 | Nick Cavell | 81.2 |
| 4 | Jiten Vara | 80.7 |
| 5 | James Wyllie | 80.0 |
| 10 | CROWD | 79.2 |
| Best Superforecaster (Nick Cavell) | 77.9 | |
The crowd beat 88.31% of participants.