Estimation

Agile pub quiz

For its first session of 2016, the London Agile Discussion Group ran a pub quiz around agile and lean. The teams did pretty well and it was a close fought battle. The quiz caused a lot of interest so, due to popular demand, we’ve published a slightly cut-down version. No looking… Read More »Agile pub quiz

Calibration tests

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  • 5 min read

How to improve on a guess Guessing (aka intuition or expert judgement) is probably the most common method of estimating that we use, but also the most inaccurate. Most people fall into the trap of giving a single answer when asked for an estimate. Don’t. Instead, offer a minimum (lower bound) and… Read More »Calibration tests

Student’s t-statistic

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  • 4 min read

Introduction In 1908, a guy at Guinness found a way to measure which types of barley produced the best beer-brewing yields: he called it the “t-statistic”. However, because Guinness was paranoid about giving away trade secrets, he had to publish his ideas under the pseudonym “Student”. Although we now know… Read More »Student’s t-statistic

Actionable Agile Analytics

In my recent post, I talked about Dan Vacanti’s take on Kanban charts. Some of his beliefs mean that our legacy charts are no longer workable. So what can we use to track dates, view scatterplots, check arrival vs departure rates, etc? Vacanti’s company has built a tool called ActionableAgile… Read More »Actionable Agile Analytics

Monte Carlo simulators

“There are too many variables to take into account … it’s impossible to know what the chance of success is.”   When I started my latest venture I knew that there was a possibility that it would fail. I’d spent years working with estimates and trying to forecast timelines, but this had lots… Read More »Monte Carlo simulators

CFD plugin for Trello

I’ve been using Trello quite a lot recently: it seems to be the tracking tool of choice for many because it is lightweight, simple to use and free. But with simplicity comes a lack of features. Unlike other systems (e.g. LeanKit and Jira), it doesn’t have metrics such as cumulative… Read More »CFD plugin for Trello

Probabilistic Forecasting

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  • 3 min read

Probabilistic forecasting is an alternative to an estimates based approach. Rather than asking your teams to break down a lot of work up front, and then estimate it, we can use past data generated by the team from the work they’ve already done to extrapolate a forecast of what may happen… Read More »Probabilistic Forecasting