As regulars will know, we have been discussing estimating and forecasting quite a lot over the last few years. There are some marvellous books out there but one thing we found absent was a straightforward, practical review of the various techniques used for estimation and forecasting. So, we decided to… Read More »NEW estimating and forecasting workshop
Portfolio Kanban is exactly what it sounds like – applying the Kanban Method to manage work at portfolio level. Essentially, creating a system to manage options: epics, projects or any work at a level where it hasn’t been decomposed by a delivery team for implementation. There isn’t a huge amount of… Read More »Portfolio Kanban and Prioritising with Cost of Delay
Did they really get it wrong? Surely after Brexit the pundits wouldn’t be that stupid. This week, we look back at the forecasting from the last 6 months on who would be the 45th President. The hot Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University predicted Trump as President. His statistical model uses… Read More »Predicting the President
In our current experiment, around 80 people made predictions on the Euro 2016 football competition. Participants range from 8 to 80 years old, from people who have never watched a match to a BBC football journalist, from Europeans to Americans. Each participant made 36 predictions (one for each of the group matches)… Read More »Brier scores
I’m always on the lookout for ways of getting better engagement, from planning sessions to retrospectives, project kick-offs to project wrap-ups, workshops to meetups. How can you get independent thoughts that aren’t influenced by that loud/experienced/dominating participant? One tool that I experienced recently (which was being used to get feedback… Read More »Independent feedback
If you’re a regular to scrumandkanban.co.uk, you’ll know that James and I have been talking about estimation and forecasting quite a bit. We’ve also run a few experiments on the topic. Two books in particular have raised interesting ideas. Firstly, Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds talked about how crowds can beat… Read More »Our summer experiment
Question: Which provides a better estimate: Planning Poker or an ‘expert’? Many teams would answer that question by saying Planning Poker is always better than an expert’s estimates. We’ve been told it’s the case so many times, that few question it. Truth is, an expert estimate is sometimes more appropriate than an estimate… Read More »Estimation meets Cynefin
Turns out, averaging does not mean dumbing down. If you want a smart decision, you’re actually better off asking a group than trying to find the expert. I’ve been reading a lot about estimation and forecasting over the last few years, and one of the most referred to books is… Read More »The wisdom of crowds
Warning: geek alert! Last week, I raved about how easy Ozzie Gooen’s Guesstimate made Monte Carlo simulations. But, I wanted more: “… imagine if you could draw your own curve for the distribution: a kind of click-and-drag option”, I mused. Straight away, Ozzie highlighted that he’d enable this in tandem… Read More »DistShaper6
In my summary of Monte Carlo Simulators (May 2015), I said that they were good because they grant the use of ranges and allow you to see how changing the inputs affects the project; but the biggest problem was that they can take quite a bit of time to set up. Well, Guesstimate has… Read More »Guesstimate
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