Category Archives: Estimation

NEW estimating and forecasting workshop

As regulars will know, we have been discussing estimating and forecasting quite a lot over the last few years. There are some marvellous books out there but one thing we found absent was a straightforward, practical review of the various techniques used for estimation and forecasting. So, we decided to build a hands-on, exercise-based workshop.… Read More »

Portfolio Kanban and Prioritising with Cost of Delay

Portfolio Kanban is exactly what it sounds like – applying the Kanban Method to manage work at portfolio level. Essentially, creating a system to manage options: epics, projects or any work at a level where it hasn’t been decomposed by a delivery team for implementation. There isn’t a huge amount of reference material out there specifically… Read More »

Predicting the President

Did they really get it wrong? Surely after Brexit the pundits wouldn’t be that stupid. This week, we look back at the forecasting from the last 6 months on who would be the 45th President. The hot Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University predicted Trump as President. His statistical model uses each candidates’ primary results (as… Read More »

Brier scores

In our current experiment, around 80 people made predictions on the Euro 2016 football competition. Participants range from 8 to 80 years old, from people who have never watched a match to a BBC football journalist, from Europeans to Americans. Each participant made 36 predictions (one for each of the group matches) in the month before the… Read More »

Independent feedback

I’m always on the lookout for ways of getting better engagement, from planning sessions to retrospectives, project kick-offs to project wrap-ups, workshops to meetups. How can you get independent thoughts that aren’t influenced by that loud/experienced/dominating participant? One tool that I experienced recently (which was being used to get feedback at the end of a… Read More »

Our summer experiment

If you’re a regular to scrumandkanban.co.uk, you’ll know that James and I have been talking about estimation and forecasting quite a bit. We’ve also run a few experiments on the topic. Two books in particular have raised interesting ideas. Firstly, Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds talked about how crowds can beat individual ‘experts’ (given the correct… Read More »

Estimation meets Cynefin

Question: Which provides a better estimate: Planning Poker or an ‘expert’? Many teams would answer that question by saying Planning Poker is always better than an expert’s estimates. We’ve been told it’s the case so many times, that few question it. Truth is, an expert estimate is sometimes more appropriate than an estimate created using Planning Poker. Sometimes… Read More »

DistShaper6

Warning: geek alert! Last week, I raved about how easy Ozzie Gooen’s Guesstimate made Monte Carlo simulations. But, I wanted more: “… imagine if you could draw your own curve for the distribution: a kind of click-and-drag option”, I mused. Straight away, Ozzie highlighted that he’d enable this in tandem with Distshaper. So, this week, I thought… Read More »

Guesstimate

In my summary of Monte Carlo Simulators (May 2015), I said that they were good because they grant the use of ranges and allow you to see how changing the inputs affects the project; but the biggest problem was that they can take quite a bit of time to set up. Well, Guesstimate has changed this: you can now… Read More »