How to improve on a guess Guessing (aka intuition or expert judgement) is probably the most common method of estimating that we use, but also the most inaccurate. Most people fall into the trap of giving a single answer when asked for an estimate. Don’t. Instead, offer a minimum (lower bound) and… Read More »Calibration tests
“There are too many variables to take into account … it’s impossible to know what the chance of success is.” When I started my latest venture I knew that there was a possibility that it would fail. I’d spent years working with estimates and trying to forecast timelines, but this had lots… Read More »Monte Carlo simulators
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